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SOU beat Carroll at home again

sou football Sean Tow Jose Sanchez Larry Bowen

Sean Tow scored two TDs and averaged 4.3 yards per carry in the Southern Oregon victory

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @Seantow17

Details about the game can be found here.

Now let’s take a look at the rankings and potential playoff implications.

First the rankings… The coaches’ poll comes out Monday, but with Lindsey Wilson and Southern Oregon both winning, the #1 and #2 spots probably won’t change. Massey Ratings predicts that #1 (in the coaches’ poll, #8 on Massey) Lindsey Wilson will lose their next game to #8 (in the coaches’ poll, #2 on Massey) Reinhardt by almost a full touchdown. Massey gives Lindsey Wilson only a 31% chance of victory. SOU is a 10.5 point favorite over College of Idaho with a 79% chance of victory, according to Massey, this coming weekend.

Carroll College took a big hit in Massey Ratings, dropping from #2 to #7. Unfortunately for Carroll College, no team with 3 losses made the NAIA football playoffs last year unless they received an automatic bid via a conference championship. That seems exceedingly unlikely for Carroll so another SOU vs. Carroll match up this year has become remote. Note that the NAIA football playoff system doesn’t consider Massey Ratings or any other unbiased rating system. Eastern Oregon didn’t get in last year even with a top 16 ranking in the coaches’ poll.

With the nation’s strongest NAIA conference teams beating up on each other, there is now a possibility that only one Frontier Conference team will make the playoffs. Montana Tech, the only other Frontier Conference team with only one loss, still has games left against Eastern Oregon, Carroll, and SOU. They will likely end the season with 3 or 4 losses and no invitation to the playoffs. Montana Western has the easiest schedule of the Frontier Conference, only having to face SOU, Carroll, Eastern Oregon, and Montana Tech once each. However, they already have two losses and still have to get by decent teams like Rocky Mountain and College of Idaho. They finish the season against Montana Tech so it will be very difficult for them to end up with just two losses as well.

In conclusion, while Massey still has 6 Frontier Conference teams in the top 13 positions, only one Frontier Conference team is a lock to make the 16-team playoffs.

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