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The new #5?

sou football bronsen ader

Bronsen Ader

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @itsbronsenADER

Massey has the Raiders at #4. Massey has Grand View at #8 and Baker at #10. The question is, “what will the coaches do tomorrow?”

Before attempting to answer that question, I decided to go back over the NAIA football playoffs of the past five years to see which conferences the coaches have erroneously favored the most (by giving undeserved home games) and which they have punished the most (by putting them on the road against inferior opponents). I went through every playoff game from 2012 to 2016 but ignored the championship games since those were away games for both teams.

The results:

The Frontier Conference is by far the coaches most unfairly ranked conference. No Frontier Conference team has lost a home playoff game to a non-Frontier Conference team in the past five years. Seven times in the past five years, Frontier Conference teams have won road playoff games against non-Frontier Conference teams. No other conference can come close to this track record.

Most conferences are +1, 0, or -1 in this analysis, and therefore aren’t worth mentioning. However, one conference is -6. The Heart of America Conference has won zero playoff games on the road during the past five years. Heart of America Conference teams have lost six playoff games at home during the past five years.

The conclusion is pretty clear. The coaches are ranking Heart of America Conference teams too high and Frontier Conference teams too low. Will they continue to do so tomorrow?

If the coaches are at all fair (and less evil than they have been in the past), SOU will move up to #5, with Grand View coming in at #6, and Baker coming in no higher than #7. The odds are decent for this, but probably not more than 50%. The Raiders could end up at #6. If the coaches are truly evil then the 9-0 Raiders will remain at #7, with two Heart of America Conference teams with loses ahead of them in the rankings.

Looking ahead:

Southern Oregon is a 4-point favorite, according to Massey, at Montana Tech on Saturday. Lindsey Wilson is the only team ahead of the Raiders with a chance of losing on Saturday. Massey does give Lindsey Wilson an 80%+ chance of winning though. My prediction is for SOU to finish the regular season as the biased coaches’ #5. The coaches will send three Heart of America Conference teams to the playoffs but only one Frontier Conference team because…

…the deck is, and has been, stacked against the Frontier Conference in favor of the Heart of America Conference (and Mid-South Conference).

One Response to “The new #5?”

  1. 1
    michael l duffy:

    5 (6) Grand View @ TBA Details
    NAIA Playoffs (2nd round)
    2 (6) Grand View @ TBA

    This is a Heart of America,conference assumption, what do they know, we don’t?