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Posts tagged Bronsen Ader

The new #5?

sou football bronsen ader

Bronsen Ader

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @itsbronsenADER

Massey has the Raiders at #4. Massey has Grand View at #8 and Baker at #10. The question is, “what will the coaches do tomorrow?”

Before attempting to answer that question, I decided to go back over the NAIA football playoffs of the past five years to see which conferences the coaches have erroneously favored the most (by giving undeserved home games) and which they have punished the most (by putting them on the road against inferior opponents). I went through every playoff game from 2012 to 2016 but ignored the championship games since those were away games for both teams.

The results:

The Frontier Conference is by far the coaches most unfairly ranked conference. No Frontier Conference team has lost a home playoff game to a non-Frontier Conference team in the past five years. Seven times in the past five years, Frontier Conference teams have won road playoff games against non-Frontier Conference teams. No other conference can come close to this track record.

Most conferences are +1, 0, or -1 in this analysis, and therefore aren’t worth mentioning. However, one conference is -6. The Heart of America Conference has won zero playoff games on the road during the past five years. Heart of America Conference teams have lost six playoff games at home during the past five years.

The conclusion is pretty clear. The coaches are ranking Heart of America Conference teams too high and Frontier Conference teams too low. Will they continue to do so tomorrow?

If the coaches are at all fair (and less evil than they have been in the past), SOU will move up to #5, with Grand View coming in at #6, and Baker coming in no higher than #7. The odds are decent for this, but probably not more than 50%. The Raiders could end up at #6. If the coaches are truly evil then the 9-0 Raiders will remain at #7, with two Heart of America Conference teams with loses ahead of them in the rankings.

Looking ahead:

Southern Oregon is a 4-point favorite, according to Massey, at Montana Tech on Saturday. Lindsey Wilson is the only team ahead of the Raiders with a chance of losing on Saturday. Massey does give Lindsey Wilson an 80%+ chance of winning though. My prediction is for SOU to finish the regular season as the biased coaches’ #5. The coaches will send three Heart of America Conference teams to the playoffs but only one Frontier Conference team because…

…the deck is, and has been, stacked against the Frontier Conference in favor of the Heart of America Conference.

Gameday!

sou football ader shelley

Jason Shelley and Bronsen Ader celebrate Ader’s 74-yard touchdown reception

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @itsbronsenADER @jasonshelley_

Massey Ratings has SOU as a 4-point favorite in today’s game at College of Idaho.

Happy birthday, Isiah Carter!

sou football bronsen ader isiah carter

Bronsen Ader and Isiah Carter

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @CarterTheGr8_

Raiders up to #3 in new Massey Ratings

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@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @Chasecole31 @itsbronsenADER

With the Raiders big road win yesterday in Montana, Massey has bumped Southern Oregon up in the computer rankings to #3. SOU will play Massey’s #12, #11, and #9 over the next three weeks. Two of those games are at home in Ashland. Massey has the Raiders as at least 7 point favorites in each contest.

The coaches’ poll comes out tomorrow. Don’t look for any major changes in the top nine from the coaches. The coaches don’t tend to move teams up unless the team in front of them lost. It will be interesting to see what they do with #2 Morningside. The Raiders were punished in the poll for losing to NCAA DI UC Davis, even though the Raiders accumulated more yards than Davis. Yesterday Morningside lost to an NCAA DIII team (Wisconsin-Whitewater) by two touchdowns. Massey says that UC Davis could beat Wisconsin-Whitewater by a touchdown. Will the coaches drop Morningside as much as they dropped the Raiders? I doubt it. Look for Morningside to slip barely out of the top five and the Raiders to still be at #9.

massey

#2 in the nation

Massey predicts SOU's 2016 football season

Massey predicts SOU’s 2016 football season

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @Matt_Retzlaff @itsbronsenADER

It’s way too early for these rankings to mean anything, but the NAIA coaches have SOU at #2 in the country, and Massey has them at #3. Massey Ratings, as shown above, also has SOU winning all of their regular season games against NAIA opponents. At Eastern Oregon, for the very first game, is a tough draw. If SOU can start the season 3-1 or 4-0, then these preseason predictions are probably correct. Go Raiders!

sou football Bronsen Ader matt retzlaff

Bronsen Ader and Matt Retzlaff celebrate a touchdown in the 2016 spring game

12 All-Frontier Conference Football Players

SOU football greg stewart tylor king Dylan Bratlie

Dylan Bratlie and Tylor King

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football

Details here.

sou football karrington jones

Karrington Jones

SOU football spring game thomas giddens

Thomas Giddens

sou football Joseph Lealofi Armando Gauger

Joseph Lealofi

sou football Matt Retzlaff Bronsen Ader

Matt Retzlaff

sou football Sam Woods Julius Rucker blocked extra point

Sam Woods and Julius Rucker

SOU football daytona Jaylenn Hart daniel abernathy

#2 Jaylenn Hart

sou football Jeremy Scottow

Jeremy Scottow

sou football tanner trosin

Tanner Trosin

SOU football David Weider

David Weider

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