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Posts tagged football

Raiders making things interesting

sou football chase knutz

Chase Knutz

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @chase_knutz

A few weeks ago, after a dominating win over Carroll College on the road, it seemed SOU had the Frontier Conference nearly wrapped up. A bye and two losses later, the top of the conference is now loaded with teams (Western Montana, Southern Oregon, Eastern Oregon, and Rocky Mountain all have two or fewer losses).

Massey agrees. The Raiders have slid to fourth (down from a number one ranking after the Carroll game), and the top four in the Frontier Conference are all in Massey’s top seven.

The last four games on the Raiders’ schedule have gone from playoff location determination games to must-win games just to get into the playoffs. While Massey has Southern Oregon at #4, the coaches will likely have them at around #13.

Massey had SOU as big favorites the next two weeks. Now the odds have gone down to about 65%.

Coaches hammer Raiders in latest poll

sou football marcus montano

Marcus Montano with the field goal

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @bangout_marcuss

I thought the coaches would drop SOU to #4. Instead they dropped them all the way down to #7 for losing to a very good team on the road. Rocky Mountain would be in the top ten were it not for an ineligible player causing them to forfeit one of their dominating wins.

Let’s take a look at some of the teams who passed the Raiders…

Evangel is at #6. They have the easiest schedule (according to Massey) of any team in the top nine. Massey has them lower than 1-5 College of Idaho in their rankings, yet the coaches think they are worthy of a #6 spot. They will likely lose at Baker in their final game so the Raiders can pass them if that happens.

#5 Lindsey Wilson’s only loss was to an FCS team. Even so, Massey has them 10 spots below the Raiders. Lindsey Wilson (who the Raiders beat, on the road, last season in the playoffs) could lose on the road this weekend though.

#4 Reinhardt lost to #9 Bethel. The rest of their schedule is easy so there is little chance the Raiders can pass them.

As mentioned previously, #3 Northwestern will likely get slaughtered by Morningside.

So, if the Raiders can win out, they will likely end up #5, meaning they will need a bit of luck to get more than one home playoff game (again).

After loss, Massey has Raiders @ #3

sou football rey vega devvon gage marcus montano cory foster

Cory Foster, Marcus Montano, Rey Vega, and Devvon Gage

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @bangout_marcuss @DevvonGage @the_reyvega

Massey dropped SOU from a tie for second to number three today. The coaches aren’t likely to agree come Monday’s new poll. I’m guessing the new coaches’ poll will look something like this:
1) Morningside
2) Marian
3) Northwestern
4) Southern Oregon

Northwestern has yet to play any decent teams and will likely get creamed by Morningside on 10/20. St. Francis would have moved ahead of the Raiders, but they lost again and will likely drop out of the top five with two in the loss column.

Rocky earned a top five spot on Massey but won’t crack the coaches’ top ten. Southern Oregon welcomes Eastern Oregon for homecoming this Saturday. EOU may make the coaches top 25 come Monday. Massey has them at #16. Massey gives the Raiders a 91% chance of winning and picks SOU by 19 over the Mountaineers.

Gameday!

sou football sean rogers

Sean Rogers with the sack

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @seannnyboii

Noon PDT kickoff. If you are in Ashland you can watch at RedZone, Oaktree, Northwest (all ages), or Omars.

New rankings and poll

sou football coach charlie hall devvon gage

Coach Charlie Hall and Devvon Gage

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football #NAIAFootball #PlayNAIA @NAIA @CoachHall_SOU @DevvonGage

Massey was impressed with Marian’s win; they jumped three spots to #1. Morningside beat Hastings 65-0, putting them in a two-way tie with the idle Raiders for the #2 ranking. Although Rocky Mountain also had a bye week, Massey moved them up a spot to #7, meaning #2 will be traveling to play at #7 this Saturday. Massey gives the Raiders an 80% chance of winning and picks SOU by 11 points.

The new 2018 NAIA Football Coaches’ Top 25 Poll came out today. My prediction from Saturday was nearly correct. SOU did move up to #2. St. Francis came in it at #5 instead of #4. The Raiders received two first place votes, not enough to overcome Morningside’s 13. The coaches are predictable–move up so long as someone above you suffers a defeat, drop if you lose even if it was to a great team. Therefore, preseason rankings mean a lot in NAIA football. That hurt SOU last year, and may hurt Marian this year. If Marian and SOU win out, expect to see them in Ashland on December 1.

Upset Saturday

sou football wyatt hutchinson

Wyatt Hutchinson

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football #NAIAFootball #PlayNAIA @NAIA @Che55Che @wyatthutch7

Frontier Conference teams did not play today. Other NAIA games featured some upsetting results. #11 Baker lost. #9 Georgetown lost. #4 Lindsey Wilson lost. And the biggest of all? #1 St. Francis lost to #6 Marian.

It will be interesting to see what Massey (tomorrow) and the coaches (Monday) think of all of this. I’m guessing the coaches top five will change to:
#1 Morningside
#2 Southern Oregon
#3 Marian
#4 St. Francis
#5 Northwestern

If the above happens, and the Raiders win out, they will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Worst case scenario, for SOU, is if the coaches do something like this:
#1 Marian
#2 Morningside
#3 St. Francis
#4 Southern Oregon
#5 Northwestern

Players of the Week

@SOUMensSoccer sou mens soccer mitch pinney

Mitch Pinney

@SOURaiders @Mitchell_Pinney @SOU_Football @Tcoop2298 @SOUMensSoccer

sou football safety tyson cooper

Tyson Cooper

SOU #1 according to Massey

sou football tyson cooper

Tyson Cooper with the takedown

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football #MasseyRatings #NAIAFootball @Tcoop2298 #PlayNAIA @NAIA

Apparently Massey was much more impressed with the Raiders victory over Carroll College yesterday than it was with the St. Francis win over St. Xavier. St. Francis fell from #1 to #3, and Southern Oregon achieved Massey’s #1 ranking for the first time since 2015. This is the first time ever that Massey has had the SOU defense at #1 in the NAIA. The coaches will still have the Raiders at #3 when their poll comes out tomorrow.

The only real chance St. Francis has of losing a game in the regular season comes Saturday when they face 3-0 Marian. Marian beat St. Xavier by 45 points (compared to the St. Francis victory of 8 points). Massey still gives St. Francis a 76% chance of winning against Marian.

The Raiders travel to Massey’s #8 Rocky Mountain next week.

Raiders take over sole possession of first place with shutout of Carroll College

sou football bronsen ader td catch

Bronsen Ader with the TD catch

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @itsbronsenADER

SOU shutout the Saints today, their first shutout in 15 years. That 27-0 win, coupled with Eastern Oregon University’s win over Montana Western, puts 4-0 Southern Oregon into sole possession of first place in the Frontier Conference. Montana Western and Montana Tech share second place with 3-1 records.

The Raiders have a bye week next week followed by another away game in Montana on October 6. That game will be against Rocky Mountain, who barely got by College of Idaho today.

Gameday!

sou football NICK KERNAGHAN tre holmes

Nick Kernaghan and Tre Holmes

@NickKernaghan @SOURaiders @SOU_Football @tre_holmes

Noon (PDT) start time for today’s game against Carroll College in Helena, Montana. You can watch the game on Youtube or head to one of the usual spots (Northwest Pizza (all ages), Oaktree, or RedZone).

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