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Ashland Daily Photo - A picture a day from beautiful Ashland, Southern Oregon USA in the Rogue Valley
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Raiders will head to the road after Thanksgiving

sou football jordan suell

Jordan Suell with the diving, TD catch

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @JordanSuell2 #NAIAFootball

The coaches’ top 4 teams all won at home (and the Raiders did too at #5) which means SOU will be heading somewhere next weekend. The destination will likely be Lindsey Wilson or Morningside (due to distance). The coaches didn’t predict as well as Massey did. The coaches #7 Langston got creamed by Northwestern, just as Massey said they would, so once again the coaches are wrong and Massey is proven correct. Why is that SOU is going to have to travel next week when Massey has them in the top four? Write your congressperson or express your outrage to the NAIA somehow.

Tailgate time!

sou football sean rogers

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @seannnyboii

Bumper stickers with my name on them preferred but not required. Go Raiders!

1 more day

sou football oshay dunmore

Oshay Dunmore

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @racetodaytona #RaceToDaytona #NAIAFootball #RoadToDaytona

Massey disagrees with the coaches on two of the games.

2 more days

sou football tanner trosin

Tanner Trosin

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football

Details here.

Basketball tonight

Three hands

@SOURaiders @stay35real

#16 Oregon Tech comes to town tonight, 7:30 at AHS.

2017 NAIA Men’s Soccer National Championship pairings announced

sou mens soccer sean mcmanamon

Sean McManamon

@SOURaiders @seanMcManamon1 @ccccommish

The Raiders will be heading to Georgia Gwinnett for their first round match.

Raiders against Raiders

sou womens wrestling Alejandra Rodriguez

Alejandra Rodriguez

@SOURaiders @SOUWrestling @SouWomwrestling

Tonight at 6:30 at Ashland High School.

The new #5?

sou football bronsen ader

Bronsen Ader

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @itsbronsenADER

Massey has the Raiders at #4. Massey has Grand View at #8 and Baker at #10. The question is, “what will the coaches do tomorrow?”

Before attempting to answer that question, I decided to go back over the NAIA football playoffs of the past five years to see which conferences the coaches have erroneously favored the most (by giving undeserved home games) and which they have punished the most (by putting them on the road against inferior opponents). I went through every playoff game from 2012 to 2016 but ignored the championship games since those were away games for both teams.

The results:

The Frontier Conference is by far the coaches most unfairly ranked conference. No Frontier Conference team has lost a home playoff game to a non-Frontier Conference team in the past five years. Seven times in the past five years, Frontier Conference teams have won road playoff games against non-Frontier Conference teams. No other conference can come close to this track record.

Most conferences are +1, 0, or -1 in this analysis, and therefore aren’t worth mentioning. However, one conference is -6. The Heart of America Conference has won zero playoff games on the road during the past five years. Heart of America Conference teams have lost six playoff games at home during the past five years.

The conclusion is pretty clear. The coaches are ranking Heart of America Conference teams too high and Frontier Conference teams too low. Will they continue to do so tomorrow?

If the coaches are at all fair (and less evil than they have been in the past), SOU will move up to #5, with Grand View coming in at #6, and Baker coming in no higher than #7. The odds are decent for this, but probably not more than 50%. The Raiders could end up at #6. If the coaches are truly evil then the 9-0 Raiders will remain at #7, with two Heart of America Conference teams with loses ahead of them in the rankings.

Looking ahead:

Southern Oregon is a 4-point favorite, according to Massey, at Montana Tech on Saturday. Lindsey Wilson is the only team ahead of the Raiders with a chance of losing on Saturday. Massey does give Lindsey Wilson an 80%+ chance of winning though. My prediction is for SOU to finish the regular season as the biased coaches’ #5. The coaches will send three Heart of America Conference teams to the playoffs but only one Frontier Conference team because…

…the deck is, and has been, stacked against the Frontier Conference in favor of the Heart of America Conference.

9-0 for the first time ever

sou football josiah maglente-tonu

@JosiahMaglente @SOURaiders @SOU_Football

Details here.

Don’t get too excited about Baker losing today as Grand View and Lindsey Wilson both won. Massey never had Baker in the top four; the coaches should drop Baker (and hopefully Grand View) below the Raiders. Still, even with a win over Montana Tech next weekend, the Raiders aren’t a lock for two home games in the playoffs.


Beating the coverage

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football

11 a.m. (PDT) start time for today’s romp in Havre, Montana. Oaktree will probably have the game on.

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