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Raiders up to #8, with little hope of much more regular-season advancement

sou football matt boudreaux

Matt Boudreaux

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football

As expected SOU rose to #8 in today’s coaches’ poll. A team must get into the top two to be guaranteed home field throughout the playoffs. Top four gets you home field through at least the quarterfinals. The Raiders have virtually no chance of making the coaches’ top four. “What?!?!” you say. How can this be with five games remaining, including #5 Montana Tech on the road?

This is another reason why the coaches’ poll should not be used as the basis for figuring out who goes to the playoffs and where those games happen. Five of the teams in front of the Raiders have no more difficult games remaining on their schedules (Morningside, Lindsey Wilson, and Reinhardt never had a decent opponent to begin with). They aren’t going to drop in the coaches’ poll without a loss (i.e. unless a major upset occurs).

Massey gives St. Francis better than 90% odds to win each of their final five games, has Reinhardt at over 98%, Morningside at over 87%, Baker at over 89%, and Lindsey Wilson at over 76%. Grand View, too, is favored to win the rest of their games. Even if the Raiders win out, and Lindsey Wilson and Grand View are upset, the Raiders will likely find themselves undefeated but with a #5 ranking. (If the Raiders win out, Massey will certainly have the Raiders in the top three).

Like 2014 and 2015, the Raiders will only receive one home game in the playoffs in a best case scenario. Should the Raiders lose one game, even if it is to #5 (Massey’s #3) Montana Tech on the road, they probably won’t get any home games in the playoffs.

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