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Posts tagged addison whitham

Happy birthday, Austin May!

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@SOURaiders @SOU_Football

Massey or Coaches?

sou football addison whitham

@YotesFootball @BakerU_Football #NAIAFootball @FConference #PlayNAIA @NAIA #MasseyRatings @AddisonWhitham @MonTechFootball @UMWFootball

The NAIA operates the football postseason in a messed up way, as I’ve pointed out many times. This is the time of year when one can very objectively test whether the system (of having coaches do the rankings which determine the postseason) is flawed or whether a better system could be put in place (such as an objective, computer ranking, based on actual results, strength of schedule, etc. like Massey Ratings).

I’ve shown, in prior years, that Massey does a much better job of predicting which team is better and how the coaches have caused superior teams from being either excluded from the playoffs altogether or having to travel to an inferior opponent’s location.

So let’s see a couple predictions before tomorrow’s games even begin.

The coaches are sending their #16 (Ottawa) to play at their #5 (College of Idaho). A #16 at a #5 in football sounds like a 3-10 point victory for the home team, correct? Not according to Massey who sees it not as #16 at #5 but as #30 at #1. Big difference as Massey has the Yotes winning by 32 points!

The coaches are sending their #15 (Baker) to play at their #3 (Kansas Wesleyan). Sounds like another 3-10 point victory for the home team, correct? Not according to Massey (who actually has Baker even lower than the coaches at #17) who predicts a Baker victory by 3.

Massey also predicts that Montana Tech and Montana Western could beat 14 of the coaches’ playoff teams at home and 11 of them on the road. However, neither team is even in the NAIA football playoffs thanks to the way the playoff teams are selected…

2019 SOU Football Senior Day (part 1)

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Noah Johnson

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @ITharp51 @AddisonWhitham

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Isaiah Tharp

addison whitham

Addison Whitham

Raiders vs. Yotes

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Addison Whitham

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @AddisonWhitham

Details about today’s game can be found here.

A few things…

I’ve heard people talk about how the Raiders season is already over after losing their first couple games. Not true. The Sacramento State game means next to nothing–especially considering how well Sac State fared against Arizona State last weekend.

Southern Oregon has had problems with Eastern Oregon at home over the last several years. Last Saturday wasn’t an exception. SOU lost to EOU at home in 2014 too, and look how that season turned out for the Raiders.

Massey has the Raiders as 7-point underdogs at College of Idaho. However, if the Raiders win (and Massey gives Southern Oregon a 32% chance of doing so), they will possibly be in a tie for first place in the conference. Even if they lose, SOU still gets to face Eastern Oregon again (at a venue they have done very well at) and College of Idaho at home to make amends for the early losses.

In summary, the season is far from over–regardless of what happens today, and a win today can quickly move them back into pole position.

#4 @ #2

sou football o-line

@SOURaiders @SOU_Football #NAIAFootball @FConference @NAIA #PlayNAIA @Che55Che @TylerCox59 @AddisonWhitham

New Massey Ratings are out after yesterday’s games. SOU, now 2-0, moved up to #2 according to Massey. Montana Tech also jumped a couple spots, setting up a #4 against #2 this coming Saturday in Ashland. Massey gives SOU a 71% chance of winning and predicts a victory for the Raiders by a touchdown.

The coaches will likely have the Raiders at #3 when the new poll comes out on Monday. Montana Tech should crack the top 20 with their 2-0 start. The Frontier Conference has performed very well against non-Frontier Conference teams so far. Massey has noticed. Will the coaches?

Carroll College beat D3 powerhouse Linfield College this past Saturday. Montana State Northern (a team that seldom wins against Frontier Conference opponents) crushed Mayville State. #20 Rocky Mountain beat #13 Dickinson State. Massey predicted that win; the coaches did not. What else is new?

Massey has seven Frontier Conference teams in the top 16. The coaches will likely have only three Frontier Conference teams in the top 25.