Gameday!
Melvin Mason
@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @RaiderVB @Sectionchamp2 @Niki_721
Football at 4.
Volleyball at 9.
Winners continue deeper into the NAIA playoffs. Losers are done. In Ashland. Be there.
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Posts tagged football
One month until the national championship
#7 Tanner Trosin will lead #7 SOU this Saturday in the first round of the NAIA FCS
@UMW_Bulldogs @racetodaytona @Play_NAIA @CCSaints
In a mere 30 days the 2015 NAIA FCS National Championship will take place in Daytona, Florida. The defending champions are the #7 seed, and won’t likely get another home game after this Saturday.
I’ve been criticizing the NAIA’s system of ranking for over a year now, but the voting coaches don’t seem to be paying me any attention. Instead, they continue to focus on number of losses and proximity to NAIA headquarters in determining the rankings.
Carroll College is trying to help fix things in basketball by providing computerized rankings weekly to the voting coaches. Will the coaches consider the more objective rankings in their polling? That remains to be seen.
In the meantime, I started poking around at some stats after looking at game-by-game stats for Dickinson State on Massey Ratings. My first question was, why is Dickinson State in the playoffs instead of Montana Western? Dickinson State barely beat 0-10 Montana Northern, and they lost to Rocky Mountain (who Montana Western beat twice by a combined 44 points). Montana Western’s three losses were all by less than a single score to teams in the top ten. Dickinson State’s two losses were to unranked teams. Voting coaches obviously aren’t looking past the number of losses.
Then I read today here that “KWU is 0-2 all-time in the NAIA FCS, losing 48-0 to Evangel (Mo.) in 2001 and 45-7 to Sioux Falls in ’02”. So I got to thinking that maybe I should delve into the history of how Frontier Conference teams do in the FCS vs teams from the Kansas College Athletic Conference (home of Kansas Wesleyan and Tabor) or the North Star Athletic Association (home of Dickinson State).
Last year Frontier Conference teams, who weren’t playing each other, went 4-0 in the FCS, winning by a combined score of 210-94 (none of the games were decided by less than two touchdowns). For some reason, the coaches felt like the Frontier Conference deserved no more than two teams in the FCS following that performance.
Over the past few years, teams from the Kansas College Athletic Conference and North Star Athletic Association have gone 0-5 in the FCS, losing by a combined score of 62-195. Four of those games were decided by two touchdowns or more. For that performance, the coaches included three teams from these two conferences instead of more deserving teams like Montana Western.
NAIA FCS first round predictions
Isiah Carter, David Weider, and Sam Woods before yesterday’s victory over Eastern Oregon University
@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @CarterTheGr8_
Here are the games:
Game 1 – Saint Xavier (Ill.) (7-3) at Morningside (Iowa) (10-1)
Game 2 – Point (Ga.) (8-2) at Baker (Kan.) (10-1)
Game 3 – Lindsey Wilson (Ky.) (8-2) at Grand View (Iowa) (10-1)
Game 4 – Reinhardt (Ga.) (9-1) at Saint Francis (Ind.) (9-0)
Game 5 – Dickinson State (N.D.) (8-2) at Montana Tech (9-1)
Game 6 – Campbellsville (Ky.) (8-2) at Marian (Ind.) (8-2)
Game 7 – Kansas Wesleyan (10-1) at Southern Oregon (8-2)
Game 8 – Doane (Neb.) (9-1) at Tabor (Kan.) (10-1)
Here are the predictions:
Game 1 – Morningside (Iowa) by 20+
Game 2 – Slight edge to Baker (Kan.)
Game 3 – Slight edge to Grand View (Iowa)
Game 4 – Slight edge to Saint Francis (Ind.)
Game 5 – Montana Tech by 20+
Game 6 – Slight edge to Marian (Ind.)
Game 7 – Southern Oregon by 20+
Game 8 – Doane (Neb.) by 7+
For SOU to host a second round game they will likely need three of the top six teams to lose in the first round. Morningside and Montana Tech will probably be victorious, but three of the other four games could go to the visiting team. If that doesn’t happen, SOU may be traveling to Montana Tech for the second round.
Southern Oregon vs Kansas Wesleyan
@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @MontanaWestern
It’s official. The Raiders will be at home on Saturday (11/21/15) for the first round of the 2015 NAIA FCS. Game time is 4 p.m.
Their opponent will be the #10 Kansas Wesleyan Coyotes. While the Coyotes record (10-1) and ranking look great, Massey Ratings has them at #46 (and SOU at #3). Massey thinks KS Wesleyan could only beat Montana Northern in the Frontier Conference. Massey has the Raiders “strength of schedule” at #5 in the country and KS Wesleyan at #82, hence their sparkly record. KS Wesleyan’s one loss came via Tabor, another program that Massey doesn’t think could beat anyone in the Frontier Conference other than Montana Northern.
But Massey, and their accurate predictions, aren’t what matter when it comes to selecting teams for the NAIA Football Championship Series. That’s why KS Wesleyan and Tabor are in the postseason and Montana Western is not. compughterratings.com thinks Montana Western could beat either team by more than 20 points on the road (and has SOU as 36 point favorites on Saturday).
Winning streak time
Jaylenn Hart with the interception and #5 Tyler Rogers making a little running room for him
@SOURaiders @SOU_Football
SOU’s 7-game winning streak came to end last weekend. Today seems like a great time to begin a new, 5-game winning streak.
Fun Football Fact
@SOURaiders @SOU_Football @Sectionchamp2
Since losing to the Raiders on September 12, Eastern Oregon University has won, lost, won, lost, won, lost, and won–in that order. Since they won last week against College of Idaho, they are due for a loss this Saturday when SOU visits. Massey has Southern Oregon as a 4-point favorite. Compughterratings picks SOU by 11.
#8
@SOURaiders @SOU_Football Matt_Retzlaff
The new football rankings have been released, and they look almost identical to my prediction. Fortunately, SOU is in the top eight so a win at Eastern Oregon this Saturday will get them a home playoff game. Unfortunately, only two other teams ahead of the Raiders in the rankings have difficult matchups this weekend. Doane will likely drop out of the top eight. Montana Tech could if they lose at home to Western Montana. Therefore, it will likely take at least two upsets in the first round of the playoffs for the Raiders to earn more than one home playoff game.
Senior Day Curse? and rankings projections
Seniors Trevor Jones and David Weider (Helena, Montana)
@SOURaiders @SOU_Football
I missed yesterday’s football game, as I was in Portland at the OSAA 5A Volleyball Championship, so the loss was less painful. But has anyone else noticed that the SOU football team has lost three “Senior Day” games in a row? Over the past three seasons, the Raiders are 12-0 at home in games that weren’t Senior Day and 0-3 on Senior Day. Coincidence? I think so, but still…
Massey has dropped SOU in its rankings to #4. The coaches aren’t likely to be as kind. I’m predicting tomorrow’s top ten to look like this:
1. Morningside
2. Baker
3. Grand View
4. Doane
5. Saint Francis
6. Montana Tech
7. Southern Oregon
8. Marian
9. Tabor
10. Montana Western
Assuming SOU and Montana Tech win their final games, I’m predicting the final top seven to look like this:
1. Morningside
2. Baker
3. Grand View
4. Saint Francis
5. Montana Tech
6. Southern Oregon
7. Marian
If things end up this way SOU will likely get only one home game in the playoffs (unless two or more teams in the top five are upset in the first round).
SOU must win at EOU to make the playoffs. The winner of the Montana Tech vs. Montana Western game will also make the playoffs. Montana Western will not make the playoffs if they lose to Montana Tech.