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Massey dropped SOU from a tie for second to number three today. The coaches aren’t likely to agree come Monday’s new poll. I’m guessing the new coaches’ poll will look something like this:
1) Morningside
2) Marian
3) Northwestern
4) Southern Oregon
Northwestern has yet to play any decent teams and will likely get creamed by Morningside on 10/20. St. Francis would have moved ahead of the Raiders, but they lost again and will likely drop out of the top five with two in the loss column.
Rocky earned a top five spot on Massey but won’t crack the coaches’ top ten. Southern Oregon welcomes Eastern Oregon for homecoming this Saturday. EOU may make the coaches top 25 come Monday. Massey has them at #16. Massey gives the Raiders a 91% chance of winning and picks SOU by 19 over the Mountaineers.
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The scenario I mentioned almost a couple months ago has come to pass. Massey has had the Raiders in the top four since September and now has SOU in the #3 spot. Unfortunately, the coaches’ poll determines playoff locations. The Mid-South Conference, with 5 votes in the coaches’ poll, has put two of their teams at home for the quarterfinals.
Southern Oregon becomes a slight underdog in this situation, instead of a huge favorite at home with a team like Northwestern coming to Ashland, due to the seedings being based on the coaches instead of impartial Massey. Massey says Lindsey Wilson will win 35-33. I think the Raiders will win 45-24.