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Guess which NAIA football team won by the most points this past weekend in the first round of the playoffs? Was it the coaches’ #1? #2? #3? #4? No. It was Massey’s #1 and the coaches’ #5. Now Massey’s #1 team has to travel for a playoff game because of the screwed up NAIA football ranking system.
Massey predicted a 32-point victory, and the Yotes beat the spread by 15 points. College of Idaho didn’t beat any Frontier Conference teams by 47 points, and yet they were able to beat one of the coaches’ playoff teams by that much. Hmmmm….
The Yotes will now have to travel to Grand View (Iowa) for a chance to make it to the semifinals. The coaches, of course, think Grand View will win. Massey has College of Idaho as the favorite by 24 points. Anyone agree with coaches and want to put some money on this game? Anyone? Anyone?
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Massey dropped SOU from a tie for second to number three today. The coaches aren’t likely to agree come Monday’s new poll. I’m guessing the new coaches’ poll will look something like this:
1) Morningside
2) Marian
3) Northwestern
4) Southern Oregon
Northwestern has yet to play any decent teams and will likely get creamed by Morningside on 10/20. St. Francis would have moved ahead of the Raiders, but they lost again and will likely drop out of the top five with two in the loss column.
Rocky earned a top five spot on Massey but won’t crack the coaches’ top ten. Southern Oregon welcomes Eastern Oregon for homecoming this Saturday. EOU may make the coaches top 25 come Monday. Massey has them at #16. Massey gives the Raiders a 91% chance of winning and picks SOU by 19 over the Mountaineers.
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Massey was impressed with Marian’s win; they jumped three spots to #1. Morningside beat Hastings 65-0, putting them in a two-way tie with the idle Raiders for the #2 ranking. Although Rocky Mountain also had a bye week, Massey moved them up a spot to #7, meaning #2 will be traveling to play at #7 this Saturday. Massey gives the Raiders an 80% chance of winning and picks SOU by 11 points.
The new 2018 NAIA Football Coaches’ Top 25 Poll came out today. My prediction from Saturday was nearly correct. SOU did move up to #2. St. Francis came in it at #5 instead of #4. The Raiders received two first place votes, not enough to overcome Morningside’s 13. The coaches are predictable–move up so long as someone above you suffers a defeat, drop if you lose even if it was to a great team. Therefore, preseason rankings mean a lot in NAIA football. That hurt SOU last year, and may hurt Marian this year. If Marian and SOU win out, expect to see them in Ashland on December 1.