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With the Raiders big road win yesterday in Montana, Massey has bumped Southern Oregon up in the computer rankings to #3. SOU will play Massey’s #12, #11, and #9 over the next three weeks. Two of those games are at home in Ashland. Massey has the Raiders as at least 7 point favorites in each contest.
The coaches’ poll comes out tomorrow. Don’t look for any major changes in the top nine from the coaches. The coaches don’t tend to move teams up unless the team in front of them lost. It will be interesting to see what they do with #2 Morningside. The Raiders were punished in the poll for losing to NCAA DI UC Davis, even though the Raiders accumulated more yards than Davis. Yesterday Morningside lost to an NCAA DIII team (Wisconsin-Whitewater) by two touchdowns. Massey says that UC Davis could beat Wisconsin-Whitewater by a touchdown. Will the coaches drop Morningside as much as they dropped the Raiders? I doubt it. Look for Morningside to slip barely out of the top five and the Raiders to still be at #9.
I’m not heading to Helena this year for tomorrow’s game. Today’s photo is from last year’s contest — the lightning game, which was the first game after the prior season’s snow game. Tomorrow’s weather looks great for football, for once, with highs around 60 degrees.
If you aren’t going to be in Helena either, the good news is Carroll College broadcasts their games for free in HD. You can watch the game online here beginning at noon on the west coast.
For a preview, click here.
For the third match in a row, Emma Gasman had 20 or more kills. Last night she did it in just four sets. Details here.
@SOURaiders @SOU_Football #NAIAFootball
As predicted back on Saturday, the Raiders moved up three spots in the new NAIA Coaches’ Poll.
Looking at the eight teams ahead of the Raiders, here is some more fortune telling:
#1 Marian has only one challenging game on their schedule. They play at #3 Saint Francis a week from Saturday. If they win that game, they will almost certainly run the table.
#2 Morningside plays an NCAA DII school this Saturday. Morningside will probably lose, but they likely won’t drop more than a couple spots in the poll. After that, their only decent opponent is #5 Doane on Oct. 8.
#3 Saint Francis has an easy schedule other than Marian. It may take a huge upset by Davenport on November 5 in order for SOU to ever pass them in the coaches’ poll.
#4 Baker already got past their only competition (Grand View in week 1).
#5 Doane will likely lose at Morningside. Other than that, they may not lose despite not being in Massey’s top ten.
#6 Reinhardt has to get by Lindsey Wilson and Faulkner on the road. They will likely lose at least one of those games, if not both.
#7 Lindsey Wilson has Reinhardt in addition to games at Faulkner and Campbellsville. They should lose one, if not two, of those.
#8 Grand View got crushed by Baker, but they have an easy schedule other than that Baker game. If the Raiders and Grand View win out, it will be unfair for the coaches to give Grand View a higher ranking simply because SOU got beat by an NCAA DI team, especially considering the difficulty of SOU’s schedule vs. Grand View’s.
#9 SOU has six or seven more tough games (out of just eight) after starting the season against three strong teams.
In summary, even if the Raiders win out and finish 9-2, I think they will only end up at #5 or possibly #6. The system really isn’t fair if that happens. Punishing the prior year runner up for a narrow first game road loss and defeat at the hands of an NCAA DI team on the road in favor of teams with easy schedules and (probably eventually) only one loss makes no sense. The bad news for Southern Oregon is a #5 finish likely means only one home playoff game (again!). The good news is SOU will be better prepared, compared to teams with weaker schedules, for the playoffs (again!).